We're trying an experiment to see if the wisdom of the crowd can be tapped to predict the outcome of a few measures and races in the Nov. 6 election.
This is not an opinion poll. It's a predictive survey. We want to know what you think the results will actually be, not what you'd like them to be. Imagine you're betting money on the outcomes. You can return and modify your answers as time passes, if you think the likely outcome has changed in a given race.
Here's the survey. Here's a current results summary. We'll also post an occasional update of the trends here on Crosscut.
We're trying an experiment to see if the wisdom of the crowd can be tapped to predict the outcome of a few measures and races in the Nov. 6 election. This is not an opinion poll. It's a predictive survey. We want to know what you think the results will actually be, not what you'd like them to be. Imagine you're betting money on the outcomes. You can return and modify your answers as time passes, if you think the likely outcome has changed in a given race. Here's the survey. Here's a current results summary. We'll also post an occasional update of the trends here on Crosscut. These are the issues and candidates we're asking about:
- Proposition 1, the Puget Sound-area roads-and-transit measure.
- Initiative 960, the statewide measure that would place certain requirements on proposed tax increases.
- Resolution 4204, which would require a majority vote instead of a super majority for school-levy passage in Washington.
- The race for King County prosecutor.
- Two Seattle City Council races.
We're new at this, so please add a comment here if you have thoughts about methodology or technical issues. We think this tool allows one participant per IP address, which could be a problem if you're voting from a big workplace. If that proves to be a problem, we can change that. Click here to take the survey.
